To assess economic developments in Latvia, the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) will continue to calculate and publish detailed quarterly GDP estimate this year, which will be available to the public two months after the end of the reference quarter. The CSB will also continue to produce reports on quarterly sector accounts, which are published no later than on the 85th day after the end of the reference quarter. In turn, publication of the GDP flash estimate on the 29th day after the end of the relevant reference quarter is temporarily deferred.
Latvia is a relatively small economy, which is particularly exposed to uncertain market conditions, therefore, the data sources and volumes routinely used in the calculation of the GDP flash estimates cannot satisfy needs in a timely and sufficient manner and show higher volatility than before. However, policy-making and decision-making in the public interest require detailed data, and extended quarterly GDP estimates provide this as opposed to just snapshot trends in the economy in the form of GDP flash estimate.
What concerns the non-publication of the GDP flash estimate, the CSB states: This step is being taken to improve the quality and timeliness of the individual datasets used in the GDP flash estimate throughout the year. The calculation of the GDP flash estimate uses a narrower range of available information, with preliminary information accounting for around 80-85 % of the data used in the calculation of extended quarterly GDP estimate. In a moderately growing economy, this amount of data is sufficient. However, since 2020, the economy of Latvia has faced various external challenges – the COVID-19 pandemic, which had a widespread impact on the economy, Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, rapid increase in prices of energy resources, which had a corresponding impact on the economy of Latvia.
In light of the above, the CSB needs to revise the data available for the calculation of GDP flash estimate in various aspects (availability, quality, timeliness, etc.) in order to improve the methodology for the calculation of GDP flash estimate in line with the strict quality and independence standards set by the statistical sector, and to improve its quality. Therefore, this year will be a transition year, and the CSB will resume publication of the GDP flash estimate from 2026. It should be noted that calculating and publishing GDP flash estimate is currently not compulsory for EU Member States – Latvia is one of the 13 countries that has done it.
The CSB also draws attention to the need to improve the availability of administrative data held by public administrations for GDP calculations. For example, in order to collect and process data in the shortest possible time in line with the strict quality requirements of the statistical sector, it is necessary to ensure that data held by public administrations can be accessed quickly online.
The CSB has successful cooperation with a number of public institutions, such as the State Revenue Service, the Treasury, etc., as well as with local governments and sectoral organisations. At the same time, there is still room for improvement and the CSB is interested in working with authorities in defining administrative data needs, in the initial development and improvement of data source records so that administrative data can be increasingly used in the provision of official statistics.
At the same time, the CSB states that investment in the creation of an IT solution for GDP calculations would also be necessary. It is necessary to ensure mutual data integrity and automated data processing. Unfortunately, there has been no investment in such IT solutions for years.